Electrolysers: falling prices – green hydrogen will soon be competitive?

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Electrolysers: falling prices - green hydrogen will soon be competitive?-green

The production of hydrogen is considered a future market worldwide. The electrolyser manufacturers are registering a hitherto unknown level of demand. Numerous new players are pushing onto the field. What does that mean for technologies and prices? And when can green hydrogen compete with fossil-based hydrogen? The trade journal HZwei conducted a survey for its January issue and compiled a market overview.

The HZwei editorial team asked several providers of electrolysers for their assessment of various market issues and recorded them anonymously. A total of 15 companies took part in this survey.

The evaluation of the answers showed that the prices for electrolysers, stacks and complete systems for two thirds of the manufacturers had fallen by up to 20 percent in the past 24 months. For the next twelve months, half of the manufacturers expect that the devices will be a further ten percent cheaper. Five manufacturers even expect prices to be up to 20 percent lower. That would be a similar development as in photovoltaics in the 2000s and 2010s.

The providers almost unanimously stated that the scaling of production was the main reason for the falling prices. This matches the information in the market overview that was created to accompany the survey: the vast majority of electrolysers are now mass-produced, but only a few manufacturers stated that they had already achieved mass production.

Green hydrogen could become competitive before 2030

Two thirds of the participants in the survey expect that in 2030 green hydrogen will be able to compete in price with the gray hydrogen produced from natural gas. Twenty percent even assume that this will be the case as early as 2025. However, this only includes the production, not the transport, which can make up a significant part of the price depending on the distance and transport route. However, the distances will probably not be as long as some expected: the majority named Europe as the most important sales market.

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9 thoughts on “Electrolysers: falling prices – green hydrogen will soon be competitive?”

  1. Green hydrogen will and must come. Faster than some thought. If the new traffic light target for 2030 of 200GW of electricity from wind power and 200GW of electricity from photovoltaics is reached or almost reached, 10GW of electrolysis capacity (new target of the traffic light by 2030) will not be enough either. Then you can really expect 30-50GW of power from all electrolysers. This will make it possible to store excess energy in the three-digit terawatt hour range. This is also absolutely necessary with the ambitious expansion goals if you don’t want to constantly limit overproduction. This means that green hydrogen will be available for all areas. This will decisively change the competition.

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  2. The demand for electrolysers will increase in the short to medium term. If there is a local RE surplus, it is probably cheaper to produce hydrogen than to expand the grid.

    A corresponding project is being implemented almost right around the corner from me. A 1 MW electrolyser uses the excess renewable energy and relieves the substation.
    A few bus lines and a district heating network are then to be operated with the hydrogen.

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  3. (My comment was originally supposed to be an answer to a comment by “Hannes Bader”, but then it became more and more extensive, so I’m posting it as a separate comment.)

    The current electricity mix in Germany is already sufficient for e-cars to be more environmentally friendly than combustion engines. And hydrogen can already be produced today with the green electricity surplus, if interested parties also want it – but in cars it is nonsense.

    In the case of fuel cells, Hyundai itself has admitted that despite halving the prices with the third generation of the FC, it is not possible for FCEVs to cost the same as BEVs, which is why the FC development at Hyundai will be paused until 2025.

    Electrolysers are important and if they become cheaper, then so much the better, because the industry will need a lot of green hydrogen in the future, but then the lobbyists must not continue to hinder the expansion of PV and wind power plants in Europe.

    Hoping for cheap foreign hydrogen is the wrong approach, because Africa, Asia, Australia and South America need the large amount of green hydrogen themselves for their industries.

    Declaring nuclear power plants and natural gas as “green” is a mistake and I can already guess what the purpose of this could be. Massive amounts of nuclear power pushing into the grid make PV and wind power superfluous and natural gas could make combustion engines with gas tanks pseudo-green.

    The lobbyists for nuclear power and fossil fuels, i.e. the big old corporations, probably want to slow down the sensible “energy transition from below” with “green” nuclear power and natural gas and condemn it to a meaningless shadowy existence.

    Because nuclear power is more expensive than PV and wind power, So the citizens will have to reckon with higher electricity prices and if the PV electricity is taken away from the Africans in order to produce hydrogen for Europe, then the climate catastrophes will increase worldwide and also here.

    The industries in Europe should largely produce the hydrogen they need themselves in an industrial association and not involve citizens, craftsmen and smaller companies in the “green” nuclear power, natural gas and hydrogen tricks and then let them pay most of the costs.

    You have to keep an eye on the whole thing, otherwise you fall for the pseudo-solutions of the lobbyists, which is why I am in favor of an “energy transition from below” with decentralized electricity and energy supply and battery-electric vehicles (the smaller the better), with H2 storage to compensate for solar and energy consumption lack of wind and the EU-wide power grid absorbs peaks and fills gaps.

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  4. Hydrogen as an energy source for electricity, heat production and industry. But not for FCEVs, we have efficient BEVs with top ranges. Money for cars with H2 drive is a waste of money and energy. And making e-fuels with H2 isn’t a worse waste

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  5. The problem with the manufacturer’s information is that they assume a break-even point of 365 days/24 hours, but the main requirement is approx. 1000 hours. In the year is (solar field), so a little more than 10% occupancy. And if you only want to convert excess electricity, which is always available locally somewhere else, then it may only be 100 hours. And attempts to load the electrolyser with mains power for the rest of the time are of course complete nonsense, since the main purpose is to relieve the load.
    Only electrolysers on offshore wind farms really work, because there (far out there) you can reach up to 65% utilization with 4000 – 6000 operating hours. But there is a long way from breaking even, since offshore is associated with high costs.

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  6. Green hydrogen must come quickly if Europe does not want to continue losing steel production and thus unnecessarily lengthen the steel cycle.
    In the direct reduction of iron ore, CO or H2 can be used, presumably with adjustments, even switched or mixed in between in the same plant.
    It would be interesting if someone who knows this from practice could give his two cents.

    It is possible that the move towards direct reduction will lead to a decentralization of steel production, since the system with an electric arc furnace is cheaper and smaller to buy.
    Metallurgical coke is also eliminated, these are also large plants.
    Transport routes and production steps could thus be saved, which could reduce the costs somewhat in some applications.
    Because the operation is only very expensive because of H2 and electricity and the production quantities are rather small, which is why the processes are currently used primarily for stainless steels/high-melting alloy elements.

    However, H2 cars are very far behind among potential customers.

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  7. Should ITER by 2025? work, then investments in H2 and regenerative energies will disappear in a very short time. Instead, nuclear fusion projects will take over the market.

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  8. How can you take an article like this seriously??
    There is not a single absolute number in the text (e.g. in €/kg). Percentages only. Ok it will be cheaper. But what is the price.

    zero info. Looks like pure meaningless cheering message.

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  9. Not the prices for electrolysis apparatus but the substantially low amounts of regeneratively generated streams are the Achilles folds when using green hydrogen! This is once again that under the Groko – namely under the fossil lobby-Knecht Altmeier (!) the expansion of renewable maximum obstructed and brought almost to the succession by bureaucratic hurdles! By the way: Which water lobbyist has ever been dared to publicly address the gigantic cost of a hydrogen infrastructure in car compared to the expansion of charging stations for BEV?

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